EUR/USD To Break Above 1.3850?

After the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement yesterday EUR/USD remained on its positions until today's early European session, which brought Euro to a rally behind the crucial 1.3800 mark. Will EUR/USD stay above it? Probably. Will EUR/USD break the 1.3850 resistance barrier to soar high to 1.4000 level? Less probably. Let's look on the fundamentals.
Yesterday a labor productivity data for the industrial sector came out lower than expected by the majority of traders - 1.8% increase, instead of 2.1%. Meanwhile, consumer credit for June this year increased by 13.2 billion dollars, while analysts were expecting 6 billion dollars increase.
FOMC released another 'inflation-concerned' statement, leaving the interest rates at 5.25% level. While the main concern for the FOMC remains the inflation, it started to get nervous because of the risks connected with the economical growth and especially housing crisis.
Today data on business wholesale inventories came out slightly better than predicted - increased by 0.5% instead of 0.4%, while the crude oil inventories again dropped down significantly - by 4.1 million barrels.
Despite of FOMC being more inflation orientated, the economical growth correction will probably make them to decrease the interest rates at least once (or at least stop increasing it even more). Currently, housing data and oil inventories (taking in mind current oil prices) don't look very promising for the U.S.

EUR/USD Rallies On Bad U.S. Employment Data

Friday, as expected, showed us some real tough action in Forex EUR/USD pair with it hopping high to 1.3800. The first Fridays of the month are often like that - you have an almost flat week of dull trading and then some important news (employment market) come and the whole situation changes fast and completely unexpectedly.
Nonfarm payrolls in July 2007 dropped 34k and came out at 92k level - opposed to 135k expected showing some clear problem which could possible exist in U.S. employment market and thus in the whole economy. Unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from the previous and expected 4.5%, while average hourly earning rose by 0.3% - just as expected.
ISM Services Index was also released today - and it came out to be quite disappointing for the U.S. dollar bulls too - it dropped down from 60.7 to 55.8, while analysts expected at least 59.0 level.

Dollar Struggling Below 1.3700

Another day marked by U.S. dollar's struggle to hold below the 1.3700 mark and get out of the bearish trend. EUR/USD is waiting for more bull power before turning back to rising or is just being corrected by some good yesterday's economical news from United States.
ISM reported on Manufacturing PMI in July disappointed many dollar bullish traders as it came out at 53.8%, below the 55.5% expected, showing some possible problems in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economics.
Previous week's oil inventories report showed a great decline of 6.5 million barrels of crude oil, while commercial petroleum inventories fell by 0.7 million barrels. But total present volumes of inventories remain satisfactional.
Today's news are less encouraging than usually - but one day doesn't mean a lot in the economics. Further news releases will tell us what to expect from U.S. economy and USD.

EUR/USD Can't Stay Above 1.3700

After breaking back above the 1.3700 mark EUR/USD fell below this level as the economic releases on inflation and consumer confidence were released today. Struggling below this level, if continued, may precede the new bearish trend in EUR/USD, while rallying and staying above will mean a return to a long-lasting EUR/USD bull trend.
Personal income and spending June numbers came out today close to the predicted values - 0.4% to 0.5% and 0.1% to 0.1% respectively. Core PCE inflation came out at 0.1% level - below the 0.2% predicted. This means that the inflation indicators are not high yet.
Chicago PMI - a major manufacturing index for the North-West region - decreased significantly from 60.2 to 53.4, while 58.5 was expected.
Construction spending numbers continue to warn the market about the crisis in realty sector showing a decrease of -0.3%, while analysts expected 0.2% growth.
Consumer confidence - the main surprise of a day which kept dollar below 1.3700 and stock markets high - came out at the 112.6 level (far above 105.4 expected) - at its highest value since 2001.

EUR/USD Faces New Downfall And U.S. GDP Data Released

EUR/USD dropped to its more than two weeks old minimum touching 1.3630 today while the market expected good data on GDP of United States for the seconds quarter of 2007. Breaking below 1.3230 for EUR/USD will mean a big trend breakout, but while it is traded higher a temporal correction should be considered.
U.S. GDP in Q2 2007 rose by 3.4% - a very good increase after 0.6% (revised from 0.7%) in Q1. It is also greater than expected number - 3.2%. Chain deflator for Q2 came out slightly lower than expected - 2.7% against 3.4% expected. Overall these are quite good results for the Q2. If U.S. economy can keep up with this pace in the second half of 2007, then it would add some more power to both stocks and Forex markets.
Today also Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July became available - 90.4 against 91.5 - lower than expected but still at a high level, showing a good sign for the U.S. economical health in general.

Bad U.S. News Keeping EUR/USD Above 1.3700

Today EUR/USD was ranging between 1.3690 and 1.3770 marks retracing a half of the yesterday's dollar rally. U.S. economy had some bad news for dollar bulls with only one bad for Euro bulls.
Manufactured durable goods orders in June increased by only 1.4% which was much lower the expected number - 2.0%, but still better than May result of decline in 2.8%.
Initial jobless claims for the last week surprisingly came out at the 301,000 level, slightly below the 310,000 number which was predicted by financial experts. Being the only positive news for the day, job market is still doing quite well, especially comparing to realty market.
Help-wanted advertising index isn't a very influential indicator of the economy growth but its decline to 26 (its staying at 27 was expected) can be an early sign for some problems on the U.S. employment market.
New homes sales in June dropped significantly from 893K (revised from 915K) to 834K units, continuing the series of bad news from the real estate sector of economy.

EUR/USD Drops Down With Bad Data on Housing and Oil Inventories

EUR/USD today is showing a very intensive bearish rally dropping to 1.3700 level after failing to take over the 1.3850 resistance mark. The major reason for such market behavior can be seen in a technical correction which should have came after the overbought condition in EUR/USD reaches its peak. Personally I thought that this correction will come a bit later letting the EUR/USD to get higher before falling down, but market is market - U.S. dollar is rallying despite of bad macroeconomic statistics which came out today.
Existing home sales - a major indicator of the U.S. economy since the crisis in the real estate sector began earlier this year - came out at 5.75 million units - below the expected 5.90 million and below the previous number of 5.98 million in May.
Crude oil inventories in the week ending on July 20 declined by 1.1 million barrels, while the motor gasoline inventories rose by 0.8 million barrels and distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels.

Key Fundamental Forex Data from U.S.

A rich day for the economical news releases from United States was today.
First, the weekly initial jobless claims data came out at the better than expected level showing only 301,000 claims for the previous week which signals the continued moderation of the U.S. unemployment rate.
Second, the leading indicators came out unexpectedly low at -0.3%, while analysts were expecting a growth of 0.1%.
Third, Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index came out at 9.2 - nearly a half of the expected 14.0.
And, at last, today's main news maker - FOMC minutes for the June 27-28 meeting were released today. The main idea of the minutes is that while the in the first quarter of 2007 economy grew at a slightly slowed down pace, the second quarter is more promising with the good news on industrial production and employment indicators; still the main concern for the Committee remain the inflation risks, while the GDP growth is estimated to be rather high in the rest of 2007.

Mixed Data from U.S. Again

Some more mixed data followed yesterday's PPI and industrial production today. Their affect on EUR/USD could be noticed as it rallied to new decade maximum on 1.3832 and then returned back below the crucial 1.3800 mark. Consumer Price Index was released slightly better than consensus (0.2% against 0.1%, while it was quite low compared to previous 0.7% rise in June 2006). As for real estate sector - a decline in building permits was dubbed with the increase in new housing starts. Business crude oil inventories were also released today and they showed a decline in 449,000 barrels for the last week. FOMC minutes will be released tomorrow and all Forex traders will listen carefully what Ben Bernanke has to say about U.S. economy so far. Some very high volatility can be expected tomorrow.

Day of Economical Releases and EUR/USD Calming

EUR/USD calmed a little today, not reaching 1.3800 level, as the majority of traders expected some important data from U.S. statistics. Data came out mixed, but generally better for dollar than for Euro. Producer Price Index in June this year showed a slight decline (-0.2%), while consensus was at +0.1%. PPI excluding food & energy to he contrary increased by 0.3% (0.2% expected). For the stock market main surprise has been prepared by the U.S. Treasury - Net Foreign Purchases in May were $126.1 billion (against $80.3B expected). Industrial production growth for June (a very important component of GDP) came out at 0.5% and the Industrial Capacity Utilization was at 81.7% (81.4% expected). So what do we get today? Very good signs of economical growth - foreign investments and high productivity - one hand, and disappointing data on inflation on the other hand. More news to come this week, so get ready for some more surprises and try to get some pips when EUR/USD starts rolling again.

U.S. Consumer Sentiments at Highs while Dollar at Lows

Today the preliminary consumers sentiment index (by University of Michigan) came out showing surprisingly good results - 92.4 against 86.0 expected - a historically high level of consumers confidence which indicates an uptrend the economy of United States. While consumer sentiment index is at its highest levels, dollar is suffering a continuous EUR/USD rally which showed a new maximum (for more than ten years period) at 1.3813 level today. Perhaps, strong macroeconomic indicators from U.S. prevented EUR/USD from keeping above 1.3800 mark, but it can be broken again at any time soon. Some other U.S. statistics became available today - business inventories growth in May increased from 0.4% to 0.5% (while a growth slowdown to 0.3% was expected). Advance monthly retail sales for June came out unexpectedly bad - falling down by 0.9% (they were expected to remain intact) - which is quite strange considering the high consumers sentiment index.

EUR/USD Uptrend Lowers Pace

EUR/USD, showing three days of straight growth with new monthly maximums every day, slightly lowered its rally today. Almost touching 1.3800 this currency pair stopped at 1.3797 and then rolled back for around 20 pips. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the previous week came out better than expected - 308,000 against 320,000 claims. U.S. trade balance came out at the expected level - $60.0 billions. If tomorrow Friday will be bullish and the 1.3800 level be broken a larger scale uptrend for EUR/USD will begin.

Employment Situation Data in U.S.

Some important macroeconomic data was released in U.S. today - employment situation in June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As it was expected by the financial analysts, the overall unemployment rate in June remained on 4.5% level - which is quite low and is a good indicator for the U.S. economy. Non-farm payrolls in June reached 132,000 which is 7,00 higher than the experts' estimations. May non-farm payrolls were also revised towards the better side - 190,000 from 157,000. Average hourly earnings came out at 0.3% level (as expected), but May data was revised from 0.3% to 0.4%. Overall, this is a good news for the U.S. economics and dollar as well. The Forex market isn't playing this data yet (or it won't) - EUR/USD returned to its 1.3600-1.3650 range, and no serious movement can be seen.

Good News from U.S. Economy

With an impressively high ISM Services index today's macroeconomic data from United States was a very optimistic news for USD bulls. June ISM non-manufacturing index came out at 60.7% - 1% higher than May number, and a lot better than expected, since the negative change in ISM index was expected. Crude oil inventories for the previous week came out at a very good level too. They rose 3.1 million barrels - which will probably mean that there will be no problems for the U.S. holidays period. Initial jobless claims were a bit worse than expected (318,000 against 315,000) - but it's not a big deal really, especially if overall unemployment data which will come tomorrow will be OK.
As for the Eurozone - European Central Bank decided to leave the interest rates at 4% - no surprise here. But they also didn't mention any dangers of inflation, like they did before, so it might be a first sign for the end of ECB rate hike.
Bank of England increased the interest rates to 5.75% as expected. The main concern for them is still an inflationary pressure, but the biggest locomotive of the consumer prices in United Kingdom - real estate market is showing a slowdown.

EUR/USD Slight Correction

Today EUR/USD retreated from its yesterday levels of 1.3630 down to 1.3600 level (with a failed try ground below 1.3600). Factory orders macroeconomic data for May came out better than expected but it still showed a decrease in this important indicator - manufacturers orders decreased by 0.5% (against 1.2% expected). But this data didn't affect Forex at all - the major bearish bars were seen four hours before it came out. It looks like EUR/USD will remain bound in 1.3600 - 1.3650 range for some time.

EUR/USD Hits Two Months High

Today Forex was a very unlucky place for U.S. dollar as the EUR/USD rallied to its two months high at 1.3630. Even good ISM index data (56% - a 1% rise - against 55% expected) couldn't help U.S. currency after last week losses. It is almost certain now that EUR/USD has broken the down-trend and is now heading north. Probable point of strong resistance can be seen at 1.3650 level, which if broken can mean a rally to 1.3800. While, stopping at 1.3650 will probably for a double-peak pattern with a new correction wave.

Some Important Data from U.S.

Today some important macroeconomic data came out in United States - final data on GDP and final chain deflator for the first quarter of the 2007. Though this data is very important for Forex markets its neutrality prevented any large affect on the market. GDP came out inside the expected borders - 0.7% which is by 0.1% better than previous value. Chain deflator was slightly higher than expected - 4.2% against 4.0%. Today data on initial jobless claims were also released - 313,000 against 315,00 expected - not much surprise here too. FOMC policy statement will be released today - maybe there will be something in it, that will move Forex market out if its flat condition.

Bad U.S. Data Don't Bother EUR/USD

Forex seems to be ignoring todays macroeconomic data that came from United States - dollar is almost at the same level (slightly better even) as it was when the week started, a ranging week so far. New home sales disappointed U.S. optimists by showing a decline from 981,000 to 915,000 houses for May, it is even lower than experts expected - 925,000. Consumer confidence - one of the basic indicator of economical growth declined in June compared to May - 103.9 from 108.5, while it was expected to come just a little lower - 106.0. Such bad news for U.S. doesn't add any optimism to USD bulls and can cause some further EUR/USD growth.

EUR/USD Rallies at Trading Week End

Last day of a Forex trading week brought some good results for EUR/USD currency pairs, moving it past 1.3450 level (but still not breaking the recent downtrend). The main reasons of such behavior of EUR/USD can be seen in slightly better than expected April industrial orders which in year-to-year period changed by +12.2% against +8.7% anticipated by experts. Also, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of ECB, spoke about Eurozone economics marking it mostly in very optimistic epithets, that could give Euro bulls some hope for the faster interest rates increase by ECB.

EUR/USD Unsure on Mixed Fundamental Data

EUR/USD is still ranging making this week pretty calm compared to some previous weeks which showed us an amazing volatility and trendiness. The main reason for this slow Forex market I can see in the rather neutral economic releases we've seen this week. While the number and the market importance of these releases were relatively low. Today the most important data were initial jobless claims which appeared 14K above expected number - 324K against 314K for the previous period (10K increase). Leading indicators, which usually don't do much for the Forex came 0.1% higher than expected - at the level of 0.3%. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturers report showed a notable improvement in May.

Another Still Day for EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forex pair was still today again. Some insignificant volatility didn't even break 15 pips corridor. This day was low on macroeconomic releases, except for major release by the Bank of England - minutes of their latest meeting in June 6 and 7. This publication added some more weight to pound moving GBP/USD slightly higher during the day. Minutes showed that there are two more possible interest rates adjustment for 0.25% by the end of 2007.

Dollar Slow Even After Housing Data

EUR/USD was ranging between 1.3385 and 1.3435 levels undecided - to go for a correction or jump back to the bearish trend which is seen since the first week of May. Such a slow motion in EUR/USD Forex can continue for the whole week. Especially after today's U.S. housing data showed completely no effect on the Forex market. Although, the numbers came out in neutral level compared to the experts' expectations, but they showed a moderate decline compared to previous values.

Euro Rallies as the Fundamentals Are Not In Dollar's Favor

EUR/USD today on Forex rallied high to 1.3380 level as the fundamental indicators from U.S. came below expectations. First, May Core CPI came at 0.1% level, whereas expected value was 0.2% (though, overall CPI was 0.1% higher than expected). Then, Industrial Production showed completely no increase in May which can be very for the U.S. GDP. Industrial Capacity Utilization was also lower than expected - 81.3% against 81.6%. And at last - Michigan University Consumer Sentiments Index (preliminary) decreased in May to 83.7, whereas experts expected 88.0. Such a bad day for the U.S. macroeconomics can be a sign to FOMC, which might start considering interest rates lowering.

EUR/USD Ranging while Macroeconomics Show No Surprises

Today, Forex was pretty calm for EUR/USD pair with the only spike to 1.3279. But this day was rich on the macroeconomic releases bot from Eurozone and U.S. Though, they were in the bounds of experts' expectation. European CPI came out to be slightly lower than expected in month to month representation. U.S. jobless claims were one thousand lower than expected, but the previous number was revised towards a bit higher value. Producers Price Index in U.S. increased better than expected - 0.9% against 0.6%.

USD Bullish Trend Continues

EUR/USD continues on its way down and now it is a trend which must be taken to consideration even for long-term Euro bulls. Correction which has seemed to be trying to return EUR/USD back to bullish trend on 04/06 and 05/06 stopped too soon releasing EUR/USD to even deeper lows. Today on Forex EUR/USD reached new low since March and it doesn't seem to be stopping yet. Overall there are some good data from U.S. coming almost everyday. Today - Retail Sales came out to be more than twice as higher as expected - 1.4% against 0.6%, while oil and gas reserves remained on high levels.

Treasry Reports on Budget while USD at Highs

Today on Forex EUR/USD showed us a moderate decline. Bears were happy to see the new two month low at 1.3312. Ten minutes ago, U.S. Treasury reported its monthly statement about the U.S. budget showing its deficit at 67.7B (billion) level which is an indeed a great sum of money, but slightly lower than predicted by experts - 68.0B. Which might positively affect dollar on Forex.

EUR/USD at Two Months Low

U.S. dollar rallied to its two months low at 1.3320 today. Surprisingly the United States Trade Balance Deficit for April 2007 was reported almost 5 billion dollars lower than predicted $58.5 billion, whereas March Trade Balance Deficit was revised to $62.4 billion (almost a billion lower than previous value). Trade Balance Deficit tightening was caused by both lower import and higher export which is a very good sign for the U.S. economics. But this wasn't the main reason for today's EUR/USD correction, the main reason was the higher yield for U.S. bonds which broke through 5.00% yesterday and now many long term investors need to buy dollars to get into the bonds.

Focus of the Day: BoE Rates and U.S. Jobless Claims

Bank of England voted to maintain its Bank Rate (interest rate) at 5.50% level - unchanged. It wasn't a surprise for Forex traders, but there was a slight possibility of interest rate hike from the BoE, so results are more bearish for the pound. From the United States the Initial Jobless Claims data for the previous week came - 309,000 against 315,00 expected - good result which moved EUR/USD back below 1.3450 level returning to the bearish trend.

EUR/USD Unsure after ECB Speaks

Today on 13:30 (UTC) ECB statement was released as the interest rates in the Eurozone were increased by 0.25% to 4.00% as expected. Jean-Claude Trichet spoke about current and expected situations in European economy and the main lines can be concluded in the following: economy is growing at a fast pace (better than expected), while inflation remains strong (because of oil prices) and the price index will be in ECB main view. This can lead to a conclusion that rates can be increased in near future. Despite of this, EUR/USD Forex pair continues its floating around 1.3500 level going nowhere for now.

EUR/USD Surprising Peak

Forex market today brought another surprise to the traders as the USD unexpectedly fell to 3 weeks low on mixed data from Eurozone. While some major macroeconomic indicators failed to show any good data for the Eurozone, EUR/USD reached 1.3553. Although it's rolled back pretty fast, EUR/USD is still traded above 1.3500 (which was a strong resistance level and now is a support level). ISM Services index from U.S. came a lot better than expected - 59.7% against 55.5% expected - this factor might play its role in returning USD to bullish trend, but that would be difficult task to accomplish.

Tough Times for USD

Today were not the best times for USD bulls as the Factory Orders indicator increased only by 0.3% (against 0.6% expected). Low growth of manufacturing orders means a slower growth of overall economy, while U.S. economy is already slow as a turtle with 2007 GDP estimated at around 1%. Such bad macroeconomic data will push EUR/USD up, even if technical analysis will cry for a correction. On the other side, previous Factory Orders indicator was revised towards better side - 4.1% from 3.5% which might cause some support for dollar on Forex.

EUR/USD Bearish after Fundamental News

EUR/USD broke through 1.3400 today on Forex market - showing a new 7-week low. Good macroeconomic data from U.S. was the reason for this break-through. Nonfarm payrolls - a major employment indicator of the U.S. economy - increased by 157,000 in May (22 thousands more than expected), while ISM Index - reported an increase by 0.3% up to 55.0% (against 54.0% expected). ISM Index means a lot in the U.S. economy because it describes its most powerful industries, and greatly influences FOMC rate decisions. Now it is quite possible to see an increase in U.S. interest rates by 0.25% this Fall, in my opinion.

FOMC Minutes to Support Dollar?

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) released its May 9 meeting Minutes on Wednesday, May 30. As it has been known since May 9 the conclusion of the meeting states that the inflation remains the main concern for the FOMC, while in future FOMC will outlook both inflation and economic growth. Statements presented in the released Minutes generally support this conclusion giving some more power for the USD bulls. This could be seen yesterday on Forex market when EUR/USD hit its new low since April 11 at 1.3406.

EUR/USD Rally and Rollback after Consumer Confidence

Euro showed a really fast and heart-breaking (for some traders at least) rally of 100 pips today before the major daily fundamental event - May Consumer Confidence Index. After hitting its resistance level at 1.3517 EUR/USD calmed down a bit rolling back to 1.3500 level. May Consumer Confidence Index which came out to be 108.0 against 104.5 expected ended Euro rally moving EUR/USD to 1.3475 level. Many other macroeconomic indicators are scheduled for this week, so Forex traders must be aware of possible rallies and rollbacks similar to those seen today.

Bad Houses Sales Costs Pips

Forex market was quite predictable today after the data on the Existing Home Sales for April came in 15:00 GMT. This macroeconomic indicator showed very poor results - 5.99 millions against 6.13 millions expected (and 6.15 millions in March). After these data came out EUR/USD gained nearly 50 pips (up to 1.3572) as the low activity in the realty industry can mean a general weakness in the U.S. economy. EUR/USD has almost fully rolled back already. But the great thing is that every Forex trader can always use monthly Existing Home Sales report to gain some fast profit on this news reaction.